{"id":11842,"date":"2025-07-18T20:55:20","date_gmt":"2025-07-18T16:55:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/agrcenter.com\/?p=11842"},"modified":"2025-07-18T21:00:42","modified_gmt":"2025-07-18T17:00:42","slug":"the-battle-of-el%e2%80%91fasher-and-the-resilience-of-the-nation%e2%80%91state-an-african-perspective","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agrcenter.com\/en\/the-battle-of-el%e2%80%91fasher-and-the-resilience-of-the-nation%e2%80%91state-an-african-perspective\/","title":{"rendered":"The Battle of El\u2011Fasher and the Resilience of the Nation\u2011State \u00a0\u201cAn African Perspective\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"11842\" class=\"elementor elementor-11842 elementor-11840\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-14441f95 background-transparent elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"14441f95\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-265dd022 background-transparent\" data-id=\"265dd022\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7f9d500d elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"7f9d500d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>The Battle of El\u2011Fasher and the Resilience of the Nation\u2011State \u00a0\u201cAn African Perspective\u201d<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><strong>An old military adage states: \u201cIf your enemy commits the same mistake twice, it\u2019s likely an ambush.\u201d<\/strong><\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p>Francophone African elites refer to the Sudanese city of El\u2011Fasher as \u201cLa pierre angulaire\u201d\u2014the cornerstone. This term reflects discussions in numerous African cultural and academic forums, which view the crisis in Sudan as a modern African exemplar of resistance against international armed plunder of African states\u2019 resources, a front that prevents the redefinition of the nation\u2011state in Africa, a strategic focus for command colleges developing military doctrine, and an operational stage for the eradication of transnational militias, severing their allegiances and rooting them out.<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><strong>Two key insights are recognized both by African political leaders and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF):<\/strong><\/p><ul><li>First, the Battle of El\u2011Fasher is seen as the final bloody chapter that will define the historical trajectory of the Sudanese state. While it may not be the literal last nail, it is considered a moment of reckoning demanded by souls that confronted unprecedented barbarism in modern Sudanese history.<\/li><li>Second, even though the RSF has suffered repeated defeats and lost moral, political, and military cohesion, its desperate attempts to impose a new political reality in Sudan continue. These efforts are driven not by ideology, principle, or patriotism, but by a slowly internalized logic of power\u2014revealing the true stakes and sacrifices behind the movement.<\/li><\/ul><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><strong>Sudan\u2019s recent multi<\/strong><strong>\u2011<\/strong><strong>front army advances send three clear strategic signals to the international community:<\/strong><\/p><ul><li>Although aware of the conflict\u2019s realities, the international community is no longer willing to prolong it or endure its consequences, previously thought to be confined to Sudan alone.<\/li><li>Since South Sudan\u2019s secession in 2011, external actors and their allies have underestimated Sudan\u2019s capacity for resistance, planning, and confrontation\u2014this miscalculation allowed transnational militias to prosper under support unparalleled even during the colonial era.<\/li><\/ul><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><strong>The Sudanese leadership has communicated three firm messages to the international community:<\/strong><\/p><ul><li>The RSF\u2019s war against Sudan\u2019s armed forces aims to destroy the state, its resources, institutions, and populace\u2014a campaign devoid of any genuine national agenda, social justice, or democracy; accordingly, confronting and eliminating the RSF is a sacred duty.<\/li><li>All Sudanese military, security, and civilian sectors agree that the RSF is a geopolitical instrument incongruent with Sudan\u2019s and the Horn of Africa\u2019s sovereign interests.<\/li><li>Key international actors must reassess their political and security calculus, recognizing that no outlaw group, however well\u2011supported logistically, can deliver legitimate outcomes.<\/li><\/ul><p>\u00a0<\/p><p>Since April 15, 2023, some international and regional actors bet on El\u2011Fasher falling to the RSF after they seized much of the region. Yet the city\u2019s resistance became the prelude to Khartoum\u2019s liberation\u2014indicating that the decisive future of Sudan after Bashir was shaped by the Battle of El\u2011Fasher as much as by that of Khartoum.<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><strong>Following Khartoum\u2019s liberation and with plans for a Darfur campaign underway, three distinct narratives concerning El<\/strong><strong>\u2011<\/strong><strong>Fasher have emerged:<\/strong><\/p><ul><li>The RSF perspective: They believe their survival after Bashir depends on retaining El\u2011Fasher. Its loss would trigger deep internal erosion\u2014a concept known in security intelligence as \u201cstructural predation\u201d. El\u2011Fasher is thus their last best chance to restore ideological legitimacy and gain external recognition. The RSF\u2019s declining morale is evident, including vivid admissions like that of tribal leader Nadhir Madub\u012b: \u201cIf Mutaharrik al\u2011Sayad reaches eastern Darfur, I will surrender to the army.\u201d<\/li><li>The Sudanese state perspective: State leadership views this war as a historic opportunity to fully reclaim and rebuild the nation. Releasing Darfur\u2014starting with El\u2011Fasher\u2014is considered essential to rooting out the partitionist project, reinforcing national unity, and drawing a definitive line from the Islamist regime of Al\u2011Ingaz.<\/li><li><strong>The international perspective: The global community now acknowledges two core facts:<\/strong><\/li><\/ul><p>\u2666\ufe0f Sudan\u2019s post\u2011Khartoum army has evolved into an operationally capable force shaped by three years of conflict, far from its former traditionalist posture.<\/p><p>\u2666\ufe0f Sudan\u2019s security apparatus is preparing to confront threats beyond transnational militias, a reality acknowledged only by true sovereign states\u2014without foreign oversight. International observers now see that the RSF\u2019s strength no longer stems solely from domestic dynamics but from a reshaped political and military experience clarified by the April 2023 \u201cBattle of Dignity.\u201d<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p>Rapid developments suggest military operations will extend beyond El\u2011Fasher. Whereas Sudan\u2019s western complications once seemed overwhelming, the current conflict has created a historic window. The Sudanese army\u2014with fortuitous timing\u2014can now reconstruct the state from within, fully reintegrating Darfur: no Sudan without a liberated Darfur.<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><strong>Possible outcomes for El<\/strong><strong>\u2011<\/strong><strong>Fasher:<\/strong><\/p><ul><li>Scenario One: Complete army control of Darfur<\/li><\/ul><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><strong>Depends on:<\/strong><\/p><ul><li>Modern military supplies;<\/li><li>Continued RSF defections;<\/li><li>Capture of El\u2011Daein, destabilizing RSF balance\u2014especially after Madub\u012b\u2019s vow to surrender if eastern Darfur falls. Tribal dynamics with Chad require a strategic integration approach.<\/li><li>Scenario Two: RSF retakes El\u2011Fasher<\/li><\/ul><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><strong>Achievable via:<\/strong><\/p><ul><li>Infiltrated cells inside the city (amplified by Gen. Ali Yaqub\u2019s death);<\/li><li>Dragging the army into unpredictable engagements.<\/li><\/ul><p>Khartoum warns that losing El\u2011Fasher would validate Sudan\u2019s partition and harm domestic support for the military.<\/p><ul><li>Scenario Three: Stalemate<\/li><\/ul><p>Ongoing clashes without decisive victory, worsening urban conditions, prompting humanitarian crisis and possible international intervention\u2014raising the specter of Darfuri independence.<\/p><ul><li>Scenario Four: Territorial division of Darfur<\/li><\/ul><p>In a prolonged arms race, a negotiated division could occur (3 of 5 states), though unlikely\u2014Sudanese forces insist on total rebel elimination, while the RSF seeks to preserve its strongholds. Nonetheless, Darfur\u2019s future remains fluid.<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><strong>To support effective nation<\/strong><strong>\u2011<\/strong><strong>state rebuilding in post<\/strong><strong>\u2011<\/strong><strong>Bashir Sudan, the following policy recommendations are proposed:<\/strong><\/p><ul><li>Media coordination: Collaborate with African broadcasters to mobilize public opinion against rebel militias threatening state integrity and institutional legitimacy.<\/li><li>Influence in RSF heartlands: Particularly within the Misseriya community, whose loyalty is wavering amid the RSF\u2019s setbacks in Kordofan. Journalist Youssef Abdel\u2011Manan summed it up: \u201cHemeti\u2019s project in Sudan is not national\u2014it reflects personal ambitions shaped by external agendas\u2026\u201d This explains rising defections.<\/li><li>Create a Sudanese \u201ctransactional diplomacy\u201d unit\u2014prioritizing economic and security leverage over long\u2011standing alliances.<\/li><li>Join Ankara\u2019s emerging Horn of Africa strategic alliance, legitimizing Khartoum and isolating the RSF regionally and globally.<\/li><li>Form a Sudan\u2011led security coalition to combat armed threats across Africa\u2014partnering with Nigeria, Cameroon, and Ghana, building on post\u2011Khartoum cooperation against the RSF.<\/li><li>Launch targeted media campaigns to debunk misleading narratives\u2014especially Libya\u2011Sudan comparisons\u2014highlighting Sudan\u2019s intellectual richness, social flexibility, and unique concept of \u201cHaute vision\u201d: the ability to elevate minds beyond any endpoint while grounding them in their origins. This unity transcends ideological divides, as seen in mixed gatherings of communists, liberals, Muslims, and Christians\u2014bound by shared patriotism.<\/li><\/ul><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><em><strong>A scholarly contribution by the researcher is available at the following link:<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/p><p><blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"oF0sMgCyKc\"><a href=\"https:\/\/mogadishucenter.com\/2025\/07\/%d9%85%d8%b9%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%81%d8%a7%d8%b4%d8%b1%d8%8c-%d9%88%d8%ab%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af%d9%88%d9%84%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%88%d8%b7%d9%86%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%b1%d8%a4\/\">\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0634\u0631\u060c \u0648\u062b\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0637\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u201c\u0631\u0624\u064a\u0629 \u0625\u0641\u0631\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629\u201d<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"\u201c\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0634\u0631\u060c \u0648\u062b\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0637\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u201c\u0631\u0624\u064a\u0629 \u0625\u0641\u0631\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629\u201d\u201d \u2014 \u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0634\u0648 \u0644\u0644\u0628\u062d\u0648\u062b \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a\" src=\"https:\/\/mogadishucenter.com\/2025\/07\/%d9%85%d8%b9%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%81%d8%a7%d8%b4%d8%b1%d8%8c-%d9%88%d8%ab%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af%d9%88%d9%84%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%88%d8%b7%d9%86%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%b1%d8%a4\/embed\/#?secret=xibLY3Dq2u#?secret=oF0sMgCyKc\" data-secret=\"oF0sMgCyKc\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><strong>Dr. Amina Al-Araimi<\/strong><\/p><p><em>Emirati Researcher in African Affairs<\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An old military adage states: \u201cIf your enemy commits the same mistake twice, it\u2019s likely an ambush.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":11845,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11842","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-non-classifiee"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Battle of El\u2011Fasher and the 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