{"id":6334,"date":"2021-04-30T21:04:20","date_gmt":"2021-04-30T17:04:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/agrcenter.com\/he-future-of-the-regime-and-the-armed-opposition-in-chad\/"},"modified":"2025-06-06T02:53:31","modified_gmt":"2025-06-05T22:53:31","slug":"he-future-of-the-regime-and-the-armed-opposition-in-chad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agrcenter.com\/en\/he-future-of-the-regime-and-the-armed-opposition-in-chad\/","title":{"rendered":"he future of the regime and the armed opposition in Chad"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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\n\nFrom the first democratic experiment in 1996 to 2021, Chad has lived in crises\n\nFrequent with slow development.\n\nCorruption is rampant, as it ranks 155 out of 162 countries recorded in the report\n\nhuman development of the United Nations, and crises have continued to a degree\n\nThe congestion caused an uprising in the cities of southern Chad, including the capital, N’Djamena.\n\nThe governor of the city of Duba was expelled from the area after violent demonstrations passing by\n\nWith numerous armed organizations and wars over the three decades in which the president ruled\n\nDebbie country.\n\nIt was launched on 11\/11\/2014 AD in N’Djamena and Mando, and large protests took place.\n\nThe demands and slogans of the demonstrators were an expression of a deteriorating social situation for life\n\nThe daily citizens and those legitimate demands as described by the international media.\n\nAnd all because of the lack of fuel and the non-payment of salaries, which called for demonstrations\n\nA number of Chadian citizens were killed, including wounded and dead.\n\nIn April 2014, N’Djamena Al-Asimah occupied a late rank among\n\nThe worst cities in the world, according to the annual study of the best places to live\n\nPrepared by the Mercer Consulting Group among the 223 cities surveyed:\n\nBangui in the Central African Republic, Port-au-Prince in Haiti, and N’Djamena in\n\nChad and Baghdad.\n\nNew hostilities to Chad emerged from armed groups that did not know Chad\n\nA lot (Boko Haram groups), the system of the National Salvation Movement in Chad contributed to\n\nInclusion of three new cases:\n\n1- The management of external files by President Idriss Deby in a manner that led to the creation of\n\nEnmities with Sudan in the Darfur file for years until the situation stabilized after interventions\n\nRegional and international, and with Central Africa in the crisis that emerged between the crisis\n\nSectarianism and conflict over resources, the crisis of the state of Mali, and interference in the motives of Bokou\n\nHaram with Nigeria, and in the files of the Cameroonian opposition with the Cameroonian government,\n\nAnd the problem of the Congo….etc\n\n2- The ruling northern tribes did not engage in a policy of containment, and preferred\n\nThe isolation and isolation that led to the emergence of a current from southern Chad began to exploit crises\n\ncountry and lead the protests.\n\n3- The reality of the Idriss Deby regime, in light of all these accumulated crises, we find a crisis\n\nCorruption led to his acknowledgment in an official speech on Salvation Day, December 1, 2014 AD, of corruption\n\nand bribery and the thefts that the state has achieved, and this has been repeated in other places\n\nThese crises continued until the year 2020.\n\nAdd to that, Idriss Deby, a military expert, who was able to manage military conflicts\n\nknowingly, but these struggles themselves were managed in a way that left many traces\n\nDarfur has thousands of heavily armed tribes, and pockets of unbridled opposition from\n\nThe Chadian-Sudanese border tribes.\n\nAlso, Central Africa, which was in a semi-strategic alliance with Chad,\n\nShe began accusing Chad of meddling in its affairs, and Russia became a heavyweight in it\n\nMilitarily, Cameroon, headed by President Paul Biya, has a vision, especially after\n\nAccusations that there is a Cameroonian opposition in the lands of Central Africa were supported\n\nfrom Chad.\n\nLibya is no longer a support for the Deby regime, which was its enemy in the face of Gaddafi\n\nHe interferes once again in its internal affairs with military militias with a French backing.\n\nThese interferences in the internal affairs of neighboring countries without assigning a role\n\nFor the African Union or an international entity whose results were to continue to consolidate a role\n\narmed violence.\n\nWhile Sudan is preoccupied with regulating its internal affairs and searching for its interests,\n\nIts interests are based on reviving its economy, stopping the war and returning Darfuri movements\n\nThe armed forces, which found strong support from Chad, especially since Chad failed in a conference\n\n“Um Jaras 1 – Wam Jaras 2″ in March 2014 AD, but it succeeded in the year 2020 AD, and it was back\n\nFactions Arko Menai and Gabriel Khalil.\n\nFrance looks at its interests in the region.\n\nAnd northern Chad (BET) where the armed Qaran and Tebu tribes predominate\n\nWell, they control southern Libya and northern Chad, and a force (FACT) appeared to create\n\nNew budgets consisting of Qaran Kanem and some of the tribes in the center of the country: Al-Balalah\n\nAnd the valleys, the Arabs and the Tama, the authority that controls it (the Muslim north since\n\nthree decades, i.e. the Muslim tribes in Chad) the Zaghawa, the Qur\u2019an and the Arabs,\n\nAl-Kanmbo, Al-Wadi, Al-Bilalah, Al-Baqirmi and others, and their reality became different\n\nPrevious – We say the Arab tribes, and the same applies to most of the tribes in the world\n\nChad, the clans have become a tribe because of their expansion and contact with foreign elements and cultures\n\nAnd riches, the situation is different, and southern Chad has its vision, and is able to defend its rights\n\nEspecially after separatist experiences and similar conflicts in the region.\n\nThe tracker notes that the southern elite in Chad, under swing governments, began\n\nMore coherent, confidence in the system has been lost, and the politician Nakarlci Yurnkar stated\n\nIn a press conference in Paris, the failure of democracy in Chad and that the Idriss D\u00e9by regime does not\n\nSupports democracy in the region and will not be eliminated except with weapons.\n\nThe last presidential elections in 2021 were boycotted by the major parties\n\nLike a kebzabo party.\n\nThe political game made northern Chad capable of tribal wars and conflicts\n\nBetween them is like the case of the old sultans in the region, wars over ambitions\n\nand wealth, and the tribal issue has taken root to a strong degree in the light of tribal conflicts\n\nrepetitive, but as Pierre Franklin Tavares says: \u201cThe improvisation of democracy\n\nIn countries that lack the means and the absence of the public interest, the sovereignty of these countries has been transformed\n\nAfrica has reduced to a mere illusion, and to the verge of collapse.”\n\nWe live with countries that have turned into semi-companies of foreign countries and African heads of state\n\nThey turned into heads of companies run by foreign countries.\n\n2021 presidential elections\n\nThe elections began on schedule, April 11, 2021, amid frustrations\n\nBefore that, there were protests and demonstrations, which led to the young leadership resorting to the embassy\n\nThe US has been on top of a saxe track, and once again the protests have led\n\nThe elections began on schedule, April 11, 2021, amid frustrations\n\nBefore that, there were protests and demonstrations, which led to the young leadership resorting to the embassy\n\nThe US has been on top of a saxe track, and once again the protests have led\n\nTo the arrest of some leaders of civil society organizations, such as Muhammad Nour Abido, and in\n\nAt the same time, Yahya Delu, from the president’s ethnicity, tried to run in the presidential elections\n\nWhich led to clashes inside the capital and the attack on it, which claimed the lives of a number of people\n\nfamily members and then fled abroad, and this incident led to\n\nBoycotting some party leaders for candidacy.\n\nThe follower of Chadian affairs notes that President Idriss Deby’s speech during the weeks\n\nThe latter has become disturbing, after the bloody events of Yahya Delo and the protests, he traveled\n\nDeby to the east of the country and stated from there that he came to power after bloodshed and was\n\nHe directs his speech to the opponents that he did not come through the ballot boxes, and in the midst of\n\nThe country in Qira stated that he and the Hajjar tribe came by force to power together\n\nAnd that he will not forget that, and in Idris Waya N’Djamena stadium, a large crowd was cursing\n\nHis opponents use an inappropriate phrase: \u201cDown with you there,\u201d and it can be interpreted as being loud in you. and all\n\nThat was an opponent of a reality in which we find the accumulation of crises.\n\nThe elections ended after the Election Commission announced his re-election with 79.32%\n\nFrom the votes in the presidential poll that took place on April 11, 2021 AD to turn death\n\nhim to complete his sixth term.\n\nThe Accord Front for Change in Chad FACT\n\nThe Front is the most recent of the rebel movements. It was established in March 2016. It consists of:\n\nA group of military organizations largely dominated by tribes (Qeran Kanem) in Qaida\n\nMahdi Mohammed belonging to the Daza from the North Kanem.\n\nBorn in 1964 in N’Djamena, he studied law and economics in France and started as an opponent\n\nagainst Idriss Deby since 2008,\n\nHe was among the Chadian political refugees in France for two decades, and\n\nWorked as an administrator in the Ministry of Infrastructure, Mahdi joined the rebellion in Darfur\n\nIn the year 2008.\n\nIn 2015, Mehdi left for Libya to reorganize the armed forces\n\nIn coordination with the opposition politician Muhammad Nouri, then they disagreed and clashes took place\n\nBetween them, dozens of soldiers were killed due to tribal and clan conflicts, despite\n\nThey belong to one tribe.\n\nAnd he was afraid of direct intervention by the French army, as happened two years ago when\n\nMirage planes stopped the advance of the Union of Resistance Forces (UFR) rebels led by Teman\n\nedematous;\n\nThe Accord Front for Change launched in Chad from within the Al-Jufra base inside\n\nThe Libyan depth controlled by General Haftar under the cover of local intelligence\u0627\n\nand international.\n\nAnd it attacked some small northern towns, surprising everyone with its arrival in\n\nNorth Kanem, through strategic plans, and the battles took place in the North Kanem region. He was wounded\n\nDuring which the president was inspecting the army, and a number of officers and leaders were injured\n\nIn the army, the losses between the two sides were great.\n\nChad’s future – to where in light of these data and variables?\n\nIs there a willingness to fight for the North’s survival in power (we use the term\n\nNorth because this expression has become frequent in the Chadian street and the emergence of expressions such as\n\n\u201cAhl al-Wasat\u201d is an attempt by some groups or elites to separate northern Chad\n\nrepresented by the Zaghawa and the Qur\u2019an with other Muslim tribes in central Chad).\n\nWill those in power accept another member of another tribe??\n\nTaking into account the external power of France, which interfered in the affairs of France\n\nIn all the internal conflicts, in addition to that, the arena witnessed a movement of organizations\n\nArmed from 2008 to 2021.\n\nAfter Libya became an important hub for the international community and many issues were settled\n\nThe issue of armed groups was one of them, and all armed groups were expelled\n\nThe Mahdi group, including them, fought in Misurata and with Haftar, and took advantage of the situation\n\nFor preparation and armament, Haftar was supported by France, Egypt and the Emirates, and he had a relationship\n\nPrussia and weapons poured into him, so when Mahdi left, he carried heavy weapons with him\n\nThere was no opposition, even the one that brought down N’Djamena in 2008 following a coup\n\nIt failed, and that is why the opposition entered a new military arsenal, especially since Haftar is keen to\n\nThat these weapons do not fall into the hands of his opponents, even President Deby was surprised by this strength\n\nAnd he asked for help from the Chadian forces in Niger and Mali because they are equipped with modern armaments\n\nTo counter terrorism on the coast.\n\nIt is more likely that there is a French role, provided that the Accord Front will be stationed inside Chad\n\nFrance intervenes to settle and reconcile between the regime and the opposition, as President D\u00e9by is an ally\n\nA strategist for France and Ali Mahdi Halyef played a role in Libya with the support of France’s ally.\n\nSome have raised the issue of the president’s assassination from within the army and this may happen, Chad\n\nI witnessed the assassination experience of two presidents: Ahmed Ghulamullah, and Ankara Temple Bay.\n\nThere are indications such as: the speed of agreement between senior officers, and the speed with which it was done\n\nTightly formed military council a few hours after death, the void\n\nCarefully drawn up constitutional document, preparing a constitutional document that controls and frames the period\n\nThe transitional government, with its three bodies, the sovereign, the executive, and the legislative, and its translation\n\ninto Arabic and publish it in less than twenty-four hours after the death of the president pays that\n\nIt is likely that there is an external force, just as the Council is a tribal alliance, most of which are from\n\nRegion (BET), from the northern Zaghawa and Qaraan tribes, with the exception of three\n\nMembers are: Bishara Gadallah, Mohamed Nour Abdel Karim, and Gama Do, what is only a \u062c\u0648\u0632\n\nSome points do not support this:\n\nFirst: His injury was announced while he was inspecting the army, and he returned leaving the field.\n\nSecond: There is no willingness on the part of the sons of his tribe to assassinate him for any reason\n\nThe reasons often differ, but they hold back when it comes to bringing him down.\n\nThird: There are differences between some members of the family of his wife (Hinda Deby) and members of the family\n\nHis family often differed on internal issues, and the Zaghawa knew perfectly well that he did not\n\nThere is a leader in their ranks that they agree about, like Deby, whose son is General Mohamed Kaka\n\nHe is a military man and is not known for his experience and his relations with parties and civil society organizations\n\n, and does not represent a symbolism within the army because the tribal polarization of the army affected me\n\nHis formation, and his son Zakaria and Abdel Karim are politicians, although Zakaria holds the rank of colonel.\n\nBut they are little present and have no ground in the army, and Teman Erdimi is a leader\n\nThe UFR opposition organization was at the head of one of the factions in the year 2008 AD when besieging\n\nThe presidential palace, a political, not a military, time, and he could not gather their ranks while he was on\n\nThe head of the UFR was given a historic opportunity.\n\nSo the Zaghawa realize the importance of Deby, and his multiple external and internal relationships\n\nHis long experience in politics and his role in major regional and international issues strengthened\n\nHis permanent presence, in addition to being a military man, has a good reputation within the institution\n\nmilitary.\n\nThe armed opposition has entered forcefully and is advancing towards the capital, realizing that its loss\n\nIt means suicide, that’s why it entered all its arsenals and its regions, and the size of it is determined\n\nThe costs and armaments are three million dollars, and therefore we should not underestimate the capabilities of\n\nThe opposition has brought down a number of generals in the high command and those close to it\n\nFrom the president, but their media reputation was weak due to the death of Debbie himself, who\n\nRepresents the president and commander in chief of the army, as if history is repeating itself, Debbie himself\n\nWhen he entered Chadian territory from the Chadian-Sudanese border, he was\n\nHis entry is like committing suicide in the face of Habri, with no backing up or turning back.\n\nThe Transitional Military Council and the French Position\n\nAfter the death of the president was announced, the army spokesman said in an official statement that \u201cit was done\n\nFormation of a military council led by General Mohamed Idriss Deby Itno (also known as\n\nGeneral Mohamed Kaka)”, and that the Transitional Military Council will run the affairs of the country\n\nFor 18 months, “its unity and stability are guaranteed”, Parliament and the government were dissolved,\n\nHe will work on forming a government and transitional institutions that will oversee the organization of elections.\n\nCurfew measures have been announced throughout the country between 6 pm and 5 pm\n\nin the morning, and the closure of all transit ports in the country: land and sea.\n\nFrance stressed its support for the military council and the need for a “peaceful transition.”\n\nauthority in Chad, and through dialogue with all political parties and society\n\ncivil society, relying on civil institutions, and ensuring the territorial integrity of Chad\n\nThis is what all Chadians realize that France has a great role to play on territorial integrity\n\nThe country is free of divisions and will support this through the military presence in Chad.\n\nIt is worth noting that the late President Idriss Deby is one of France’s most important allies in the world\n\nThe region, and that Deby’s relationship became stronger after Macron’s arrival, unlike his relationship with\n\nFrancois Hollande, who was at odds with Debbie on some points, such as the murder case\n\nThe politician Ibn Omar, and Chadian-French relations are among the files\n\nMilitary security.\n\nThe council was made up of the generals’ membership:\n\n1- General Mohamed Idris Itno as President.\n\n2- General Gama de Ma Joz – Minister of Defense, Deputy.\n\n3- General Beshara Issa Jadallah as second deputy.\n\n4- General in Oki Dakkas, a member\n\n5- General Muhammad Emael Shaibo – Member\n\n6- General Suleiman Abkar, member\n\n7- General Taher wanted him as a member.\n\n8- General Azim Bernardo as a member\n\n9- General Amin Ahmed Idris, member\n\n10- General Juman Mukhtar as a member\n\n11- General Saleh Haqi, member\n\n22- General Abkar Abdul Karim, Commander-in-Chief, Member\n\n31- General Ahmed Youssef Mohamed Hatno, member.\n\n14- General Qila Hemisi, member\n\nThe notes therein are as follows:\n\n1_ This council came like a tribal-clan alliance between components of the Zaghawa\n\nThe Mahri Arabs are like Chotiar Bishara Jad Allah, and the Tama clans are like Chotiar\n\nMohamed Nour Abdel Karim.\n\n2_ Dissolving Parliament, canceling the constitution, and forming a military council led by Mohamed Idriss Deby\n\nIt may open the door to divisions and conflicts that may be a cause for differences in the institution\n\nmilitary and opens the way for the generals who think they are deserving of the position.\n\n3_ The position of the army at this stage was to confirm the maintenance of security and readiness for any\n\naggression, and in accordance with the 2006 constitution, the Speaker of Parliament is assigned to run the country, and here it will be\n\nThe position of the opposition is weak, and it has no choice but to compromise and reconciliation.\n\n4_ The killing of Deby encouraged the armed opposition to advance towards N’Djamena and returned to it\n\nEnthusiasm to seize power, it was defeated, but it was victorious by killing the supreme leader\n\nThe army, which represents all power.\n\n5_ The experience of choosing the president\u2019s son in a country like Chad is an adventure and it is new to me\n\nChadian society that occurred between it and such traditions break after the scourge\n\nFrom the rule of the old sultans, the street is frustrated with the idea of \u200b\u200bany succession to power, especially since\n\nDebbie’s authority was not stable.\n\n6_ I have spoken in detail in my book: External Interventions of the Chadian Army (\n\nEffects and claims) on the nature of the components of the Chadian army.\n\nAnd the nature of the military institution was not prepared for such a reality, especially since it is composed of\n\nTribal and close to the nature of the militia, and its national foundations and controls are not fixed\n\nIt has more than a hundred generals, among whom are illiterate, and some of them were appointed for reasons of settlement\n\nand ethnic balances.\n\n7_ There are many pockets of other oppositions that you may be able to collect under the\n\n(FACT) such as groups of valleys, Arabs, pumpkins, dajos … etc.\n\n8_ This void left by Deby will be great in a country where institutions are absent\n\nAnd its borders are large, overlooking all fragile states that suffer crises, including lawlessness\n\nSecurity and terrorist groups.\n\n9- The Chadian Trade Union Confederation issued a statement rejecting the military council and called it:\n\nWe reject the Transitional Military Council’s seizure of power and called for the handover of power\n\nfor civilians. And condemned the receipt of power by force of arms.\n\nCircumstances and facts stand so far on the side of General Muhammad Kaka and outweigh him\n\nFrance confirms its support, and a high-ranking delegation headed by French President Macron attended the meeting\n\nThe funeral ceremony of President D\u00e9by to his final resting place, in the presence of heads of state, the President\n\nThe Nigerian Mohamed Bazoum, the Mauritanian Mohamed Ould Al-Ghazwani and the President of the Council\n\nThe Sudanese Sovereign Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, the Guinean Alpha Conde, and the Chairman of the Council\n\nMali Ndaou Ba, Gabonese Prime Minister Ross Osuka, and the National Assembly\u062c\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0629\n\n(The Chadian Parliament) supports the formation of the Military Council on April 21, 2021 AD.\n\nAnd the President of the Federation, Moussa Al-Faki, crossed a post on his page in which he supported the Council in particular\n\nAnd that it is an integral part of the Chadian regime, but the position of the African Union was clear\n\nForming a committee to investigate the killing of President Deby, and granting the legitimate authority to civilians.\n\nThe Chadian people are worried at the present time for fear of a repeat of the 1979 war.\n\nThe data favor the young man, Muhammad Kaka, and the scenarios are similar to the case of Sudan in\n\nIts beginnings and ends with a similar face (for Sudan: a transitional military council), and it is suspicious\n\nFor the State of Togo, upon the departure of the President of Togo, Gnassingbe Eyadema in the year 2005 AD after\n\nA rule that lasted 38 years, the power was handed over to his son, Forgnasingbe, but the situation\n\nIn Chad, the Chadian military establishment differs in its nature and composition from\n\nMilitary institutions in African countries.\n\nWe derive the following from all of this:\n\n1- The state of Chad remains in a crisis, which calls for a serious stand by the people (the expression is peaceful)\n\nprotests, he has honorable positions) even though the people themselves suffer from conflicts\n\nethnicity.\n\n2- The peaceful transfer of power is a real way out for the upcoming Chad crisis in the presence of all\n\nThese problems.\n\n3- The unity of the opposition at home and abroad is necessary to confront the problems in the country\n\nSo as not to show slips.\n\n4- The Military Council must seriously address the crisis and seek to solve it, and it has to reach a conclusion\n\nResolve Balmhavhat and dialogue, and call for reconciliation.\n\n5- The Chadian army that has turned into a policeman in the region, it is clear to us that it is dragging\n\nThe country is in crisis, and that these moves must be in coordination with the parties\n\nAnd organizations, the armies were founded to defend the homelands, and the support of France does not mean\n\nNecessarily the continuation of its position or that it is able to resolve the conflict, as circumstances have passed\n\nIt proved the opposite of what France wanted.\n\n6- The military council\u2019s attempt to turn the issue into a tribal conflict between (Qur\u2019an)\n\nKanem) and the government will negatively affect the situation, as the FACT organization is made up of several\n\nTribes such as: Al-Balalah, Al-Wadi, Al-Tama, Al-Arab, etc.\n\nThat is why we look forward to the intervention of the African Union impartially to spare the bloodshed, and the neighboring countries,\n\nQatar and Saudi Arabia previously sponsored reconciliation between the opposition and the regime.\n\nPresident D\u00e9by was a link between politicians and the military, and with his passing, he left\n\n\n\nA vacuum that needs a leader to fill this void, as he did not leave a state of institutions, and this is\n\nIt would affect the stability of the region.\n\nDr.. Adam Youssef: researcher and academic, working on the culture and language project in\n\nAfrica – a culture of violence and peace with a focus on tracking Central African issues, Center for African Research and Studies – Sudan.\n\n<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From the first democratic experiment in 1996 to 2021, Chad has lived in crises Frequent with slow development. Corruption is rampant, as it ranks 155 out of 162 countries recorded in the report human development of the United Nations, and crises have continued to a degree The congestion caused an uprising in the cities of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6332,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[98,74],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6334","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-studies-and-research-fr","category-studies-and-research-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nhe future of the regime and the armed opposition in Chad - \u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0644\u064a\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0631\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/agrcenter.com\/en\/he-future-of-the-regime-and-the-armed-opposition-in-chad\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"he future of the regime and the armed opposition in Chad - \u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0644\u064a\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0631\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From the first democratic experiment in 1996 to 2021, Chad has lived in crises Frequent with slow development. 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