{"id":10423,"date":"2025-05-29T06:53:34","date_gmt":"2025-05-29T02:53:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/agrcenter.com\/?p=10423"},"modified":"2025-06-05T16:10:03","modified_gmt":"2025-06-05T12:10:03","slug":"what-happens-after-the-presidents-resignation-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agrcenter.com\/fr\/what-happens-after-the-presidents-resignation-3\/","title":{"rendered":"Tourne\u0301e franc\u0327aise dans la Corne de l’Afrique : aspirations et constantes"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Le pre\u0301sident franc\u0327ais Emmanuel Macron visite la re\u0301gion de la Corne de l\u2019Afrique (du 20 au 22 de\u0301cembre) alors que le Conseil de paix et de se\u0301curite\u0301 de l\u2019Union africaine, sous la pre\u0301sidence de Djibouti, tient aujourd\u2019hui une re\u0301union ministe\u0301rielle pour confirmer l\u2019inte\u0301gration des forces e\u0301thiopiennes dans la mission de l\u2019Union africaine pour le soutien et la stabilisation de la Somalie (AUSSOM), qui commencera ses ope\u0301rations en janvier prochain. Les acteurs internationaux n\u2019auraient jamais accepte\u0301, a\u0300 l\u2019unanimite\u0301, l\u2019exclusion de la pre\u0301sence e\u0301thiopienne de la sce\u0300ne somalienne apre\u0300s que Mogadiscio a accepte\u0301 la participation de forces e\u0301gyptiennes a\u0300 ATMIS (ancienne AMISOM). Les puissances influentes dans la Corne de l\u2019Afrique sont bien conscientes que les tentatives du Caire de limiter l\u2019influence e\u0301thiopienne en Afrique en ge\u0301ne\u0301ral et dans le bassin du Nil en particulier ne donneront pas les re\u0301sultats escompte\u0301s par l\u2019E\u0301gypte. La cre\u0301ation d\u2019un \u00ab Conseil militaire des pays du bassin du Nil \u00bb annonce\u0301e par Le Caire, regroupant les dix pays traverse\u0301s par le Nil, pourrait certes renforcer le ro\u0302le de l\u2019E\u0301gypte en matie\u0300re de fourniture d\u2019e\u0301quipements militaires aux pays en amont et relancer l\u2019industrie militaire e\u0301gyptienne. Cependant, cela restera dans le cadre d\u2019une coope\u0301ration et d\u2019une coordination conforme aux inte\u0301re\u0302ts de ces E\u0301tats. L\u2019accueil favorable de Kampala a\u0300 la participation de l\u2019E\u0301gypte a\u0300 la mission de l\u2019Union africaine de maintien de la paix en Somalie (ATMIS) en octobre dernier ne signifie pas que l\u2019Ouganda rompra sa coope\u0301ration en matie\u0300re de renseignement et de de\u0301fense avec Addis-Abeba. L\u2019Ouganda et les autres pays en amont du Nil partagent en effet la vision e\u0301thiopienne, qui vise a\u0300 de\u0301velopper des me\u0301canismes de croissance be\u0301ne\u0301fiques pour l\u2019ensemble des pays du bassin. Ce point n\u2019e\u0301chappe pas a\u0300 la diplomatie e\u0301gyptienne, qui sait bien que le sommet de l\u2019Initiative du Bassin du Nil, reporte\u0301 en octobre dernier, se tiendra au premier trimestre de 2025. Il se de\u0301roulera cependant dans un contexte particulier, apre\u0300s que six pays membres ont ratifie\u0301 l\u2019accord sur la gestion coope\u0301rative des eaux du Nil, ouvrant ainsi la voie a\u0300 la transformation de l\u2019Initiative du Bassin du Nil en une \u00ab Commission du bassin du Nil \u00bb dote\u0301e de larges pre\u0301rogatives, une e\u0301volution que Le Caire rejette fermement. L\u2019E\u0301gypte a promis d\u2019investir 100 millions de dollars dans les pays du bassin du Nil (selon le ministre e\u0301gyptien des Affaires e\u0301trange\u0300res Badr Abdel Aty), ce qui pourrait ame\u0301liorer ses relations avec ces E\u0301tats. Mais cela suffira-t-il a\u0300 obtenir une re\u0301vision de l\u2019Accord-cadre de coope\u0301ration ? C\u2019est assure\u0301ment une question que la France abordera avec Addis-Abeba.<\/p>

La visite du pre\u0301sident franc\u0327ais en E\u0301thiopie et a\u0300 Djibouti est lie\u0301e a\u0300 la vision future de Paris concernant les principaux pays bordant l\u2019oce\u0301an Indien, notamment le Kenya et la Tanzanie, qui deviennent des piliers strate\u0301giques de l\u2019influence franc\u0327aise hors de ses zones d\u2019influence traditionnelles. Alors que Paris soutient implicitement l\u2019aspiration e\u0301thiopienne a\u0300 un acce\u0300s maritime, l\u2019annonce re\u0301cente par Ankara d\u2019une re\u0301conciliation entre la Somalie et l\u2019E\u0301thiopie incite la France a\u0300 relancer l\u2019accord de coope\u0301ration en matie\u0300re de de\u0301fense signe\u0301 en 2019 entre Addis-Abeba et Paris (suspendu en raison de la de\u0301te\u0301rioration de la situation politique en E\u0301thiopie). Cet accord pre\u0301voit la formation des forces navales e\u0301thiopiennes, dont 300 personnes ont de\u0301ja\u0300 be\u0301ne\u0301ficie\u0301, certaines ayant e\u0301te\u0301 envoye\u0301es en France pour leur formation. Dans le cadre de son rapprochement strate\u0301gique avec Addis-Abeba, Paris pourrait inviter l\u2019E\u0301thiopie a\u0300 la Confe\u0301rence des Nations Unies sur les oce\u0301ans et la se\u0301curite\u0301 maritime, pre\u0301vue a\u0300 Paris en 2025. De plus, l\u2019Agence franc\u0327aise de de\u0301veloppement (AFD) a renforce\u0301 re\u0301cemment sa pre\u0301sence en E\u0301thiopie, financ\u0327ant des projets d\u2019infrastructure, notamment un projet de fibre optique be\u0301ne\u0301ficiant a\u0300 six millions de personnes et 2 500 centres de sante\u0301. La France s\u2019est e\u0301galement implique\u0301e dans la pre\u0301servation du patrimoine culturel e\u0301thiopien, notamment en financ\u0327ant a\u0300 hauteur de 20 millions d\u2019euros la re\u0301novation du palais national a\u0300 Addis-Abeba. Selon des sources franc\u0327aises, Emmanuel Macron assistera aux ce\u0301le\u0301brations du jubile\u0301 d\u2019argent de l\u2019empereur Haile Selassie.<\/p>

D\u2019un point de vue strate\u0301gique, la visite du pre\u0301sident franc\u0327ais dans la Corne de l\u2019Afrique vise plusieurs objectifs :<\/p>

  • Soutenir la proposition du ministre djiboutien des Affaires e\u0301trange\u0300res Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, faite en septembre dernier, en faveur d\u2019une gestion conjointe du port de Tadjourah avec l\u2019E\u0301thiopie.<\/li>
  • Parvenir a\u0300 un accord avec l\u2019E\u0301thiopie sur la restructuration de sa dette exte\u0301rieure de 28 milliards de dollars. Alors que les ne\u0301gociations entre Addis-Abeba et le FMI avancent, Paris espe\u0300re re\u0301e\u0301valuer la notation de la dette e\u0301thiopienne pour relancer ses cre\u0301dits et accroi\u0302tre ses investissements, notamment dans le secteur e\u0301nerge\u0301tique. La rencontre en octobre dernier entre le ministre e\u0301thiopien des Finances Ahmed Shide et le directeur de l\u2019AFD, Re\u0301my Rioux, s\u2019inscrit dans cette logique.<\/li>
  • Convaincre Addis-Abeba d\u2019inte\u0301grer la Communaute\u0301 d\u2019Afrique de l\u2019Est (EAC), conforme\u0301ment a\u0300 la vision du Kenya sur l\u2019inte\u0301gration e\u0301conomique re\u0301gionale pour apaiser les tensions en Afrique de l\u2019Est. Paris souhaite e\u0301galement renforcer sa coope\u0301ration se\u0301curitaire et militaire avec l\u2019E\u0301thiopie et le Kenya. La collaboration se\u0301curitaire entre la France et Nairobi remonte a\u0300 2004, notamment par la formation d\u2019officiers kenyans au sein du Colle\u0300ge de de\u0301fense commun franc\u0327ais. De plus, Paris cherche a\u0300 intensifier ses investissements dans l\u2019expansion du port de Mombasa, malgre\u0301 la pre\u0301sence de la socie\u0301te\u0301 franc\u0327aise CMA CGM dans la re\u0301gion.<\/li><\/ul>

    Dans le contexte du conflit soudanais, la France, en coordination avec Washington, pourrait :<\/p>

    • Soutenir une initiative turque sous me\u0301diation e\u0301thiopienne ou djiboutienne pour favoriser une solution politique a\u0300 la crise.<\/li>
    • Envoyer Christian Kamara et Fre\u0301de\u0301ric Tisserand, figures majeures de la strate\u0301gie se\u0301curitaire franc\u0327aise en Afrique, afin de renforcer la pre\u0301sence de Sofema au Soudan et de pre\u0301parer un retour e\u0301conomique franc\u0327ais apre\u0300s la guerre.<\/li><\/ul>

      Depuis 2018, Paris et Washington partagent une vision commune sur l\u2019E\u0301thiopie. Apre\u0300s la re\u0301conciliation historique entre Addis-Abeba et Asmara, suivie des conflits internes avec des factions comme le Front de libe\u0301ration du Tigre\u0301, les critiques contre Abiy Ahmed se sont multiplie\u0301es. Cependant, les puissances internationales conside\u0300rent ces tensions comme des tentatives de de\u0301tourner Abiy Ahmed des affaires re\u0301gionales, freinant ainsi ses ambitions d\u2019union confe\u0301de\u0301rale dans la Corne de l\u2019Afrique. Bien que certaines forces souhaitent son de\u0301part, elles trouvent avantageux de le voir accapare\u0301 par les proble\u0300mes internes pluto\u0302t que libre d\u2019acce\u0301le\u0301rer le de\u0301veloppement du pays, notamment le projet du Grand Barrage de la Renaissance.<\/p>

      Le syste\u0300me fe\u0301de\u0301ral e\u0301thiopien est essentiel a\u0300 la stabilite\u0301 du pays et aux inte\u0301re\u0302ts internationaux. Contrairement aux revendications se\u0301paratistes de certaines factions comme le Front de libe\u0301ration Oromo, les puissances e\u0301trange\u0300res soutiennent la transformation de la politique e\u0301thiopienne en un mode\u0300le proche du bipartisme ame\u0301ricain, loin des divisions ethniques. Cependant, l\u2019he\u0301ritage colonial a profonde\u0301ment ancre\u0301 la politique ethnique en Afrique. Ainsi, l\u2019E\u0301thiopie demeure un acteur cle\u0301 du continent, et ni l\u2019E\u0301gypte ni le Soudan ne peuvent l\u2019ignorer, quelles que soient leurs strate\u0301gies re\u0301gionales.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Le pre\u0301sident franc\u0327ais Emmanuel Macron visite la re\u0301gion de la Corne de l\u2019Afrique (du 20 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10442,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[98],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10423","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-studies-and-research-fr"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTourne\u0301e franc\u0327aise dans la Corne de l'Afrique : aspirations et constantes - \u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0644\u064a\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0631\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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