{"id":12079,"date":"2025-07-22T04:02:57","date_gmt":"2025-07-22T00:02:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/agrcenter.com\/?p=12079"},"modified":"2025-07-23T03:29:17","modified_gmt":"2025-07-22T23:29:17","slug":"la-bataille-del-fasher-et-la-resilience-de-letat%e2%80%91nation-une-perspective-africaine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agrcenter.com\/fr\/la-bataille-del-fasher-et-la-resilience-de-letat%e2%80%91nation-une-perspective-africaine\/","title":{"rendered":"La tourn\u00e9e africaine annonc\u00e9e de l\u2019Alliance \u201cSommoud\u201d Un masque sur un visage mort"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"12079\" class=\"elementor elementor-12079 elementor-12077\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-64bf1571 background-transparent elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"64bf1571\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-3b0fcd6b background-transparent\" data-id=\"3b0fcd6b\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-757434a6 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"757434a6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>La tourn\u00e9e africaine annonc\u00e9e de l\u2019Alliance \u201cSommoud\u201d<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>Un masque sur un visage mort<\/strong><\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p>Un vieux proverbe africain de la prestigieuse tribu des Serer, install\u00e9e \u00e0 l\u2019extr\u00eame ouest du continent, affirme :<\/p><p>\u00ab Lorsque l\u2019homme ne voit pas de sortie de secours, il court dans toutes les directions. \u00bb<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p>Depuis janvier 2024, une expression cod\u00e9e est utilis\u00e9e dans les cercles journalistiques et intellectuels francophones lorsqu\u2019il s\u2019agit d\u2019\u00e9voquer la coordination \u201cTagaddum\u201d, dont est issu le projet politique \u201cSommoud\u201d, ou la milice des Forces de soutien rapide (FSR). Cette expression \u2014 devenue virale chez les chercheurs et sp\u00e9cialistes des affaires africaines \u2014 est aujourd\u2019hui r\u00e9sum\u00e9e par une formule d\u00e9sormais c\u00e9l\u00e8bre : \u00ab Un masque sur un visage mort \u00bb. Elle se suffit \u00e0 elle seule pour lire l\u2019opinion africaine face \u00e0 la sc\u00e8ne politique soudanaise, qui a instaur\u00e9 pour la premi\u00e8re fois dans l\u2019histoire contemporaine du continent une rupture nette entre les composantes de l\u2019\u00c9tat. Une r\u00e9alit\u00e9 que les \u00e9lites francophones africaines ont su int\u00e9grer en r\u00e9visant leurs visions strat\u00e9giques en fonction des garanties et limites marquant la gen\u00e8se du projet au c\u0153ur de Khartoum.<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p>Selon des sources s\u00e9curitaires fran\u00e7aises, le Dr Abdalla Hamdok, chef de l\u2019Alliance Sommoud, s\u2019appr\u00eate \u00e0 effectuer une tourn\u00e9e dans plusieurs pays d\u2019Afrique de l\u2019Ouest. Cette initiative co\u00efncide avec la tenue imminente d\u2019une r\u00e9union de haut niveau du \u201cGroupe des Quatre\u201d parrain\u00e9e par les \u00c9tats-Unis, pr\u00e9vue pour ce mois de juillet afin de mettre un terme \u00e0 la guerre au Soudan. L\u2019annonce a suscit\u00e9 un vif int\u00e9r\u00eat \u2014 mais peu d\u2019enthousiasme \u2014 dans les cercles politiques et s\u00e9curitaires ouest-africains. Trois courants principaux expliquent cette r\u00e9ception r\u00e9serv\u00e9e, chacun ayant \u00e9merg\u00e9 apr\u00e8s le 15 avril 2023 :<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p>\ud83d\uded1 Premier courant :<\/p><p>D\u00e8s le d\u00e9part, ce courant n\u2019a jamais per\u00e7u la coordination \u201cTagaddum\u201d comme une v\u00e9ritable solution pour le Soudan \u2014 et encore moins aujourd\u2019hui dans sa version \u201cSommoud\u201d. Sa position repose sur une lecture approfondie de la notion d\u2019\u00c9tat civil, du processus d\u00e9mocratique, de la guerre et de la paix. Selon lui, bien que l\u2019Alliance Sommoud ait critiqu\u00e9 la r\u00e9pression de la r\u00e9bellion, elle a paradoxalement trouv\u00e9 un terrain d\u2019entente avec le groupe arm\u00e9 \u2014 malgr\u00e9 la conscience que ce dernier ne visait ni la justice ni la d\u00e9mocratie, mais l\u2019\u00e9radication pure et simple de l\u2019\u00c9tat soudanais pour lui substituer un r\u00e9gime parall\u00e8le. Si l\u2019objectif r\u00e9el est la construction d\u2019un \u00c9tat civil, cela commence par le respect des institutions l\u00e9gitimes, le rejet du recours \u00e0 la violence arm\u00e9e, et l\u2019\u00e9tablissement de dialogues officiels, y compris par des m\u00e9diateurs r\u00e9gionaux ou internationaux. Faute de cela, la notion d\u2019\u00c9tat national perd toute signification.<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p>Ce courant propose une vision strat\u00e9gique tourn\u00e9e vers l\u2019avenir des \u00c9tats-nations africains. Il appelle \u00e0 r\u00e9former les syst\u00e8mes politiques, renforcer les m\u00e9canismes \u00e9lectoraux et favoriser une participation citoyenne \u00e9largie.<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p>\ud83d\uded1 Deuxi\u00e8me courant :<\/p><p>Ce courant partage la m\u00eame analyse que le premier, \u00e0 une diff\u00e9rence pr\u00e8s : il a soutenu avec ferveur la nomination d\u2019Abdalla Hamdok \u00e0 la t\u00eate du gouvernement de transition post-Bashir, voyant en lui l\u2019opportunit\u00e9 de relancer ce qu\u2019on appelait alors le \u201cProjet du Grand Soudan\u201d. Homme de stature internationale et b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiant d\u2019un large soutien populaire, Hamdok incarnait l\u2019espoir. Mais son retour apr\u00e8s le coup d\u2019\u00c9tat, sa collaboration avec une milice hors-la-loi, et sa tentative de l\u00e9gitimer les crimes de celle-ci contre la souverainet\u00e9 nationale, ont profond\u00e9ment \u00e9branl\u00e9 la confiance qu\u2019on lui portait. Il n\u2019est d\u00e9sormais per\u00e7u que comme l\u2019ex\u00e9cutant d\u2019un r\u00f4le d\u00e9fini, bient\u00f4t termin\u00e9.<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p>Ce courant est fonci\u00e8rement hostile aux r\u00e9gimes autoritaires. Il promeut une d\u00e9mocratisation forte, fond\u00e9e sur la structuration des partis politiques. Bien qu\u2019il b\u00e9n\u00e9ficie d\u2019un soutien populaire dans plusieurs pays d\u2019Afrique de l\u2019Ouest, il reste confront\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019immaturit\u00e9 institutionnelle des exp\u00e9riences d\u00e9mocratiques africaines.<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p>\ud83d\uded1 Troisi\u00e8me courant :<\/p><p>Moins impliqu\u00e9 dans les dynamiques hors de son voisinage imm\u00e9diat, ce courant reste discret mais attentif. Pour lui, la p\u00e9rennit\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00c9tat civil ne peut \u00eatre garantie que par ses institutions militaires nationales. En d\u2019autres termes, la continuit\u00e9 \u00e9tatique est indissociable de la solidit\u00e9 de son arm\u00e9e.<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p>Il ne porte pas de jugement pr\u00e9d\u00e9fini sur les mouvements civils soudanais issus de la r\u00e9volution de d\u00e9cembre. Il s\u2019appuie exclusivement sur les analyses produites par ses organes de renseignement et de s\u00e9curit\u00e9. Toute position est d\u00e9termin\u00e9e selon la compatibilit\u00e9 avec ses propres int\u00e9r\u00eats nationaux et le respect des normes internationales.<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p>R\u00e9sum\u00e9 (vision africaine) :<\/p><ul><li>La tourn\u00e9e de Hamdok est per\u00e7ue comme un clone affligeant de celle du chef de milice Hemetti en janvier 2024 \u2014 une op\u00e9ration de communication co\u00fbteuse, sans port\u00e9e r\u00e9elle sur l\u2019avenir politique du Soudan.<\/li><li>Les centres d\u00e9cisionnels africains, m\u00eame ceux ayant jadis soutenu la FSR, r\u00e9alisent que le pari sur une prise de pouvoir exp\u00e9ditive par la milice est perdu. L\u2019arm\u00e9e soudanaise a r\u00e9affirm\u00e9 que toute influence internationale doit passer par les institutions nationales l\u00e9gitimes.<\/li><li>La communaut\u00e9 internationale est d\u00e9sormais en d\u00e9sarroi, consciente que le mod\u00e8le sur lequel elle misait (la milice) n\u2019a plus d\u2019avenir. L\u2019appareil militaire soudanais, forg\u00e9 depuis 1989, s\u2019est r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 \u00e9tonnamment r\u00e9silient.<\/li><li>Les acteurs internationaux impliqu\u00e9s dans la crise soudanaise savent d\u00e9sormais qu\u2019aucun retour en arri\u00e8re n\u2019est possible. Les visites comme celle du ministre britannique des Affaires \u00e9trang\u00e8res David Lammy \u00e0 la fronti\u00e8re soudano-tchadienne en janvier, ou les discussions autour d\u2019une mission onusienne \u00e0 Port-Soudan, n\u2019inverseront pas le cours des choses. Le Soudan de demain \u2014 sans milices \u2014 est d\u00e9sormais en marche.<\/li><\/ul><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><strong>Dr. Amina Al-Araimi<\/strong><\/p><p><em>Emirati Researcher in African Affairs<\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Un ancien adage militaire affirme : \u00ab Si votre ennemi r\u00e9p\u00e8te deux fois la m\u00eame erreur, c\u2019est probablement une embuscade. \u00bb<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":12082,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[98],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12079","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-studies-and-research-fr"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.3 - 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