Some have criticized me for being pessimistic.. while I was presenting my reading of the outcomes of the peace negotiations that began last week.. between the Government of Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North.. led by Lieutenant General Al-Hilu.. via Sudan 24 TV.. The multiplicity of questioners and sympathizers prompted me to return to the subject in this space with some important details and additions.. The reality is that the matter was neither pessimism nor optimism.. as much as it was a reading of the presented data.. and no two people will disagree that there is a fundamental issue that determines.. to a large extent.. the chances of success or failure of any negotiation between two parties.. and it is the degree of convergence or divergence between those two parties in positions.. before sitting down to the negotiating table.. and if some believe that signing a declaration of principles before the round of negotiations.. has shortened a lot of the matter.. and has gone a long way in bringing the two negotiating parties closer.. then another issue reflects in reality the fact.. that there is a vast gulf that will cast its shadow on the progress of the negotiations.. and by that we mean the Juba Peace Agreement.. signed between the Government of Sudan and the parties to the peace process from the armed struggle forces..!
This agreement, which the government has signed, adopted, and is now working to implement—meaning it is fully recognized—is viewed by the SPLM, led by al-Hilu, as a looming evil that has befallen Sudan and its people. It has not offered solutions, but rather has created and will create new crises. The bottom line is that the government recognizes the Juba Agreement, while the movement does not. The worst thing that could happen now is for the government, or some of its factions, to entrench themselves behind the logic that no matter how far the issue is resolved in Juba, there is no way to reopen it. These are two controversial points, and their potential impact on the course of the negotiations remains a possibility!
Perhaps my reading was closest to reality.. In a direct question during the program about the chances of success of the current round of negotiations, my answer was that the mediation had previously determined that the current round, which began on the 26th of May, would end on the 6th of June. Therefore, the success of the two parties in agreeing on an agenda for negotiation could be the best success achieved in the current round. And only 24 hours before I spoke, the mediation officially announced the suspension or postponement of the direct negotiation sessions until Monday, the 31st of this month. The reason is that the SPLM had submitted a framework paper to the mediation, in which it sees the governing framework for the course of the negotiations, and not the declaration of principles as leaked from some sources in some locations. Rather, the movement’s delegation had devoted itself to the declaration of principles and worked on dissecting and detailing it. And from that, it emerged with a roadmap that it sees the negotiations following. What is certain is that this map includes the agenda and issues that should be negotiated according to the movement’s vision, of course. And whoever thinks that the position of the government delegation, or at least some of it, will come identical to the shoe is delusional. With this framework for the movement, it’s enough that the government delegation needed about five days to respond to the framework movement paper!
As for me, and based on all of the above, I have a firm belief that the mediation may have to extend this round beyond June 6th, just to reach an agreed-upon agenda with the parties that can be negotiated. I still hold to my opinion that simply reaching an agreement on the agenda would represent a success, even a breakthrough, upon which future negotiations can be built.
Dr. Amina Al-Arimi
An Emirati researcher specializing in African affairs.
