Scenarios of Elections in Côte d’Ivoire: Between the Past, the Present, and the Future

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Introduction

Since Côte d’Ivoire gained independence in 1960, presidential elections have functioned as a mirror reflecting the nation’s social tensions, political confrontations, and structural transformations. With the advent of the multi-party system in 1990, elections became a key indicator of the evolution of the Ivorian political system—oscillating between phases of authoritarian stability and democratic uncertainty.

 

Understanding the electoral trajectory of Côte d’Ivoire, therefore, requires an examination of how historical, ethnic, institutional, and socio-economic factors have interacted to shape both the patterns of power and the crises of legitimacy that continue to define the Ivorian state.

 

 

  1. The Historical Context of Presidential Elections in Côte d’Ivoire

 

1.1. The Era of One-Party Rule (1960–1990)

 

Côte d’Ivoire’s first presidential election took place in 1960, the same year it gained independence from France. The Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI-RDA), led by Félix Houphouët-Boigny, established a one-party political system that dominated the national scene for three decades.

Houphouët-Boigny was the sole candidate in successive elections (1960, 1965, 1970, 1975, 1980, and 1985), each time securing over 99% of the vote. This political monopoly fostered stability and economic growth, yet it also suppressed political pluralism and institutional diversification.

 

Despite the absence of political competition, this period is often remembered as one of national unity and prosperity. The President justified the ban on opposition parties by arguing that political pluralism could lead to ethnic fragmentation and undermine the fragile cohesion of a newly independent nation.

His argument reflected a pragmatic philosophy of governance: prioritizing unity and development over ideological diversity. While this approach delayed democratization, it also ensured social peace for nearly three decades.

 

 

1.2. The Advent of Political Pluralism (1990)

 

By the late 1980s, mounting economic difficulties and the erosion of state legitimacy opened the way for political transformation.

Under pressure from student movements, trade unions, and emerging opposition groups—especially Laurent Gbagbo’s Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) and the student union FESCI—President Houphouët-Boigny agreed in May 1990 to legalize political parties.

 

That same year, Côte d’Ivoire held its first multi-candidate presidential election. Houphouët-Boigny faced Gbagbo, marking an unprecedented event in the nation’s political life.

Houphouët-Boigny won with 82% of the vote, but the election revealed deep tensions between reformist forces and the ruling elite.

Student protests and violent clashes—known as the “School Crisis” of 1990—exposed the growing political activism of the younger generation.

 

After Houphouët-Boigny’s death in December 1993, power passed constitutionally to Henri Konan Bédié, then Speaker of the National Assembly, who sought to consolidate the legacy of the PDCI-RDA amid an increasingly polarized political landscape.

 

  1. The Era of Political Fragmentation and Identity Tensions

 

2.1. The 1995 Presidential Election: Institutionalizing Exclusion

 

The 1995 election, held under President Bédié, was shaped by the controversial introduction of the concept of Ivoirité, which required presidential candidates to be born of two Ivorian parents. This clause was perceived as an attempt to exclude Alassane Dramane Ouattara (ADO) and his northern constituency from the political process.

As a result, both the Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) and the Rally of the Republicans (RDR) boycotted the election, denouncing it as a farce.

Bédié won with 96.44% of the vote, but his legitimacy remained contested, and the politics of Ivoirité sowed the seeds of ethnic division that would haunt Côte d’Ivoire for decades.

 

 

2.2. The 2000 Presidential Election: The Collapse of Consensus

 

Following the 1999 military coup led by General Robert Guéï, Côte d’Ivoire entered a period of political instability. Guéï promised a transition to democracy but manipulated the process to retain control.

The 2000 Constitution maintained the same exclusionary nationality clause, once again disqualifying Ouattara.

The Supreme Court barred fourteen candidates, including Ouattara, leaving only five in the race—among them Guéï and Gbagbo.

 

The election took place on October 22, 2000. When the electoral commission announced Gbagbo’s victory, Guéï attempted to seize power by force. Popular protests erupted, leading to his downfall and confirming Gbagbo as president.

Though hailed as a “people’s victory,” the transition failed to heal deep national fractures. Ouattara’s exclusion left a large segment of the population politically alienated, creating fertile ground for future unrest.

 

 

2.3. The 2010 Presidential Election: The Crisis of Dual Legitimacy

 

After nearly a decade of civil conflict and international mediation, Côte d’Ivoire organized presidential elections in 2010 under UN supervision. The contest featured Laurent Gbagbo, Alassane Ouattara, and Henri Konan Bédié.

The first round produced no clear winner, and a runoff was held on November 28, 2010. The Independent Electoral Commission declared Ouattara the victor with 54.1%, while the Constitutional Council invalidated results from northern regions and proclaimed Gbagbo the winner with 51.45%.

 

This institutional contradiction created a crisis of dual sovereignty—two presidents, two governments, and two claims to legitimacy.

The standoff escalated into armed conflict, resulting in over 3,000 deaths and widespread human rights violations.

French and UN forces intervened militarily in April 2011, leading to Gbagbo’s arrest and Ouattara’s recognition as president.

The post-crisis period ushered in a new era of reconstruction but also left enduring wounds within the national consciousness.

 

 

  1. Post-Crisis Consolidation and Electoral Dynamics (2011–2020)

 

3.1. The 2015 Presidential Election: Managed Stability

 

The 2015 presidential election was held in a relatively peaceful environment under the administration of Alassane Ouattara. Benefiting from an improved economy and international support, Ouattara secured 83.66% of the vote.

Although the opposition denounced irregularities, the election marked a return to institutional normalcy and political predictability.

However, critics noted the dominance of the executive branch, limited inclusiveness, and the absence of genuine political alternation.

 

 

3.2. The 2020 Presidential Election: Continuity versus Legitimacy

 

The 2020 election reopened debates about constitutional limits and political renewal. After the sudden death of his designated successor, Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly, Ouattara announced his candidacy for a controversial third term.

Opposition parties, including those of Henri Konan Bédié and Pascal Affi N’Guessan, argued that his candidacy violated the two-term constitutional limit.

Despite protests and boycotts, the Constitutional Council validated his bid, and he won with 94.27% of the vote amid low turnout and a tense security climate.

 

While the election ensured institutional continuity, it also exposed a democratic deficit and deep mistrust between ruling and opposition elites. The boycott by major parties weakened the legitimacy of the process, raising concerns about long-term political inclusivity.

 

 

  1. Scenarios for the Future (2025 and Beyond)

 

As Côte d’Ivoire approaches its next electoral cycle, several scenarios emerge regarding the evolution of its political system:

  1. Scenario of Controlled Stability

– The ruling coalition maintains its dominance through political co-optation and managed succession.

– Elections remain predictable, emphasizing stability over transformation.

  1. Scenario of Competitive Transition

– The emergence of new political figures, generational change, and civic mobilization could open space for genuine competition.

– This scenario depends on transparent institutions and reforms to the Independent Electoral Commission.

  1. Scenario of Fragmentation and Tension

– Persistent regional and ethnic cleavages, coupled with economic inequality, may revive old grievances.

– Without inclusive dialogue, latent instability could re-emerge, undermining the gains of the past decade.

 

Ultimately, Côte d’Ivoire’s democratic trajectory will depend on its ability to reconcile electoral competition with national cohesion.

Institutional reforms, generational renewal, and a credible commitment to pluralism are essential to transform the cycle of elections from a source of conflict into a mechanism of collective legitimacy.

 

Conclusion

 

The history of elections in Côte d’Ivoire reveals the country’s ongoing struggle to balance legitimacy, stability, and inclusivity.

From the era of Houphouët-Boigny’s one-party rule to the contested pluralism of the 1990s and the post-conflict normalization of the 2010s, each phase reflects the evolving nature of state authority and social cohesion.

 

The challenge today is not merely to organize elections, but to ensure that they embody genuine democratic choice and reinforce national unity rather than division.

 

Only through institutional integrity, political tolerance, and renewed civic engagement can Côte d’Ivoire transform its electoral experience into a sustainable democratic legacy for future generations.

 

 

Dr. Sanogo As samdalawi

Professor of Political Media

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