The future of the regime and the armed opposition in Chad

From the first democratic experiment in 1996 to 2021, Chad has lived in crises

Frequent with slow development.

Corruption is rampant, as it ranks 155 out of 162 countries recorded in the report

human development of the United Nations, and crises have continued to a degree

The congestion caused an uprising in the cities of southern Chad, including the capital, N’Djamena.

The governor of the city of Duba was expelled from the area after violent demonstrations passing by

With numerous armed organizations and wars over the three decades in which the president ruled

Debbie country.

It was launched on 11/11/2014 AD in N’Djamena and Mando, and large protests took place.

The demands and slogans of the demonstrators were an expression of a deteriorating social situation for life

The daily citizens and those legitimate demands as described by the international media.

And all because of the lack of fuel and the non-payment of salaries, which called for demonstrations

A number of Chadian citizens were killed, including wounded and dead.

In April 2014, N’Djamena Al-Asimah occupied a late rank among

The worst cities in the world, according to the annual study of the best places to live

Prepared by the Mercer Consulting Group among the 223 cities surveyed:

Bangui in the Central African Republic, Port-au-Prince in Haiti, and N’Djamena in

Chad and Baghdad.

New hostilities to Chad emerged from armed groups that did not know Chad

A lot (Boko Haram groups), the system of the National Salvation Movement in Chad contributed to

Inclusion of three new cases:

1- The management of external files by President Idriss Deby in a manner that led to the creation of

Enmities with Sudan in the Darfur file for years until the situation stabilized after interventions

Regional and international, and with Central Africa in the crisis that emerged between the crisis

Sectarianism and conflict over resources, the crisis of the state of Mali, and interference in the motives of Bokou

Haram with Nigeria, and in the files of the Cameroonian opposition with the Cameroonian government,

And the problem of the Congo….etc

2- The ruling northern tribes did not engage in a policy of containment, and preferred

The isolation and isolation that led to the emergence of a current from southern Chad began to exploit crises

country and lead the protests.

3- The reality of the Idriss Deby regime, in light of all these accumulated crises, we find a crisis

Corruption led to his acknowledgment in an official speech on Salvation Day, December 1, 2014 AD, of corruption

and bribery and the thefts that the state has achieved, and this has been repeated in other places

These crises continued until the year 2020.

Add to that, Idriss Deby, a military expert, who was able to manage military conflicts

knowingly, but these struggles themselves were managed in a way that left many traces

Darfur has thousands of heavily armed tribes, and pockets of unbridled opposition from

The Chadian-Sudanese border tribes.

Also, Central Africa, which was in a semi-strategic alliance with Chad,

She began accusing Chad of meddling in its affairs, and Russia became a heavyweight in it

Militarily, Cameroon, headed by President Paul Biya, has a vision, especially after

Accusations that there is a Cameroonian opposition in the lands of Central Africa were supported

from Chad.

Libya is no longer a support for the Deby regime, which was its enemy in the face of Gaddafi

He interferes once again in its internal affairs with military militias with a French backing.

These interferences in the internal affairs of neighboring countries without assigning a role

For the African Union or an international entity whose results were to continue to consolidate a role

armed violence.

While Sudan is preoccupied with regulating its internal affairs and searching for its interests,

Its interests are based on reviving its economy, stopping the war and returning Darfuri movements

The armed forces, which found strong support from Chad, especially since Chad failed in a conference

“Um Jaras 1 – Wam Jaras 2” in March 2014 AD, but it succeeded in the year 2020 AD, and it was back

Factions Arko Menai and Gabriel Khalil.

France looks at its interests in the region.

And northern Chad (BET) where the armed Qaran and Tebu tribes predominate

Well, they control southern Libya and northern Chad, and a force (FACT) appeared to create

New budgets consisting of Qaran Kanem and some of the tribes in the center of the country: Al-Balalah

And the valleys, the Arabs and the Tama, the authority that controls it (the Muslim north since

three decades, i.e. the Muslim tribes in Chad) the Zaghawa, the Qur’an and the Arabs,

Al-Kanmbo, Al-Wadi, Al-Bilalah, Al-Baqirmi and others, and their reality became different

Previous – We say the Arab tribes, and the same applies to most of the tribes in the world

Chad, the clans have become a tribe because of their expansion and contact with foreign elements and cultures

And riches, the situation is different, and southern Chad has its vision, and is able to defend its rights

Especially after separatist experiences and similar conflicts in the region.

The tracker notes that the southern elite in Chad, under swing governments, began

More coherent, confidence in the system has been lost, and the politician Nakarlci Yurnkar stated

In a press conference in Paris, the failure of democracy in Chad and that the Idriss Déby regime does not

Supports democracy in the region and will not be eliminated except with weapons.

The last presidential elections in 2021 were boycotted by the major parties

Like a kebzabo party.

The political game made northern Chad capable of tribal wars and conflicts

Between them is like the case of the old sultans in the region, wars over ambitions

and wealth, and the tribal issue has taken root to a strong degree in the light of tribal conflicts

repetitive, but as Pierre Franklin Tavares says: “The improvisation of democracy

In countries that lack the means and the absence of the public interest, the sovereignty of these countries has been transformed

 

Africa has reduced to a mere illusion, and to the verge of collapse.”

 

We live with countries that have turned into semi-companies of foreign countries and African heads of state

 

They turned into heads of companies run by foreign countries.

 

2021 presidential elections

 

The elections began on schedule, April 11, 2021, amid frustrations

 

Before that, there were protests and demonstrations, which led to the young leadership resorting to the embassy

 

The US has been on top of a saxe track, and once again the protests have led

The elections began on schedule, April 11, 2021, amid frustrations

 

Before that, there were protests and demonstrations, which led to the young leadership resorting to the embassy

 

The US has been on top of a saxe track, and once again the protests have led

 

To the arrest of some leaders of civil society organizations, such as Muhammad Nour Abido, and in

 

At the same time, Yahya Delu, from the president’s ethnicity, tried to run in the presidential elections

 

Which led to clashes inside the capital and the attack on it, which claimed the lives of a number of people

 

family members and then fled abroad, and this incident led to

 

Boycotting some party leaders for candidacy.

 

The follower of Chadian affairs notes that President Idriss Deby’s speech during the weeks

 

The latter has become disturbing, after the bloody events of Yahya Delo and the protests, he traveled

 

Deby to the east of the country and stated from there that he came to power after bloodshed and was

 

He directs his speech to the opponents that he did not come through the ballot boxes, and in the midst of

 

The country in Qira stated that he and the Hajjar tribe came by force to power together

 

And that he will not forget that, and in Idris Waya N’Djamena stadium, a large crowd was cursing

 

His opponents use an inappropriate phrase: “Down with you there,” and it can be interpreted as being loud in you. and all

 

That was an opponent of a reality in which we find the accumulation of crises.

 

The elections ended after the Election Commission announced his re-election with 79.32%

 

From the votes in the presidential poll that took place on April 11, 2021 AD to turn death

 

him to complete his sixth term.

 

The Accord Front for Change in Chad FACT

 

The Front is the most recent of the rebel movements. It was established in March 2016. It consists of:

 

A group of military organizations largely dominated by tribes (Qeran Kanem) in Qaida

 

Mahdi Mohammed belonging to the Daza from the North Kanem.

 

Born in 1964 in N’Djamena, he studied law and economics in France and started as an opponent

 

against Idriss Deby since 2008,

 

He was among the Chadian political refugees in France for two decades, and

 

Worked as an administrator in the Ministry of Infrastructure, Mahdi joined the rebellion in Darfur

 

In the year 2008.

 

In 2015, Mehdi left for Libya to reorganize the armed forces

 

In coordination with the opposition politician Muhammad Nouri, then they disagreed and clashes took place

 

Between them, dozens of soldiers were killed due to tribal and clan conflicts, despite

 

They belong to one tribe.

 

And he was afraid of direct intervention by the French army, as happened two years ago when

 

Mirage planes stopped the advance of the Union of Resistance Forces (UFR) rebels led by Teman

 

edematous;

 

The Accord Front for Change launched in Chad from within the Al-Jufra base inside

 

The Libyan depth controlled by General Haftar under the cover of local intelligenceا

 

and international.

 

And it attacked some small northern towns, surprising everyone with its arrival in

 

North Kanem, through strategic plans, and the battles took place in the North Kanem region. He was wounded

 

During which the president was inspecting the army, and a number of officers and leaders were injured

 

In the army, the losses between the two sides were great.

 

Chad’s future – to where in light of these data and variables?

 

Is there a willingness to fight for the North’s survival in power (we use the term

 

North because this expression has become frequent in the Chadian street and the emergence of expressions such as

 

“Ahl al-Wasat” is an attempt by some groups or elites to separate northern Chad

 

represented by the Zaghawa and the Qur’an with other Muslim tribes in central Chad).

 

Will those in power accept another member of another tribe??

 

Taking into account the external power of France, which interfered in the affairs of France

 

In all the internal conflicts, in addition to that, the arena witnessed a movement of organizations

 

Armed from 2008 to 2021.

 

After Libya became an important hub for the international community and many issues were settled

 

The issue of armed groups was one of them, and all armed groups were expelled

 

The Mahdi group, including them, fought in Misurata and with Haftar, and took advantage of the situation

 

For preparation and armament, Haftar was supported by France, Egypt and the Emirates, and he had a relationship

 

Prussia and weapons poured into him, so when Mahdi left, he carried heavy weapons with him

 

There was no opposition, even the one that brought down N’Djamena in 2008 following a coup

 

It failed, and that is why the opposition entered a new military arsenal, especially since Haftar is keen to

 

That these weapons do not fall into the hands of his opponents, even President Deby was surprised by this strength

 

And he asked for help from the Chadian forces in Niger and Mali because they are equipped with modern armaments

 

To counter terrorism on the coast.

 

It is more likely that there is a French role, provided that the Accord Front will be stationed inside Chad

 

France intervenes to settle and reconcile between the regime and the opposition, as President Déby is an ally

 

A strategist for France and Ali Mahdi Halyef played a role in Libya with the support of France’s ally.

 

Some have raised the issue of the president’s assassination from within the army and this may happen, Chad

 

I witnessed the assassination experience of two presidents: Ahmed Ghulamullah, and Ankara Temple Bay.

 

There are indications such as: the speed of agreement between senior officers, and the speed with which it was done

 

Tightly formed military council a few hours after death, the void

 

Carefully drawn up constitutional document, preparing a constitutional document that controls and frames the period

 

The transitional government, with its three bodies, the sovereign, the executive, and the legislative, and its translation

 

into Arabic and publish it in less than twenty-four hours after the death of the president pays that

 

It is likely that there is an external force, just as the Council is a tribal alliance, most of which are from

 

Region (BET), from the northern Zaghawa and Qaraan tribes, with the exception of three

 

Members are: Bishara Gadallah, Mohamed Nour Abdel Karim, and Gama Do, what is only a جوز

 

Some points do not support this:

First: His injury was announced while he was inspecting the army, and he returned leaving the field.

 

Second: There is no willingness on the part of the sons of his tribe to assassinate him for any reason

 

The reasons often differ, but they hold back when it comes to bringing him down.

 

Third: There are differences between some members of the family of his wife (Hinda Deby) and members of the family

 

His family often differed on internal issues, and the Zaghawa knew perfectly well that he did not

 

There is a leader in their ranks that they agree about, like Deby, whose son is General Mohamed Kaka

 

He is a military man and is not known for his experience and his relations with parties and civil society organizations

 

, and does not represent a symbolism within the army because the tribal polarization of the army affected me

 

His formation, and his son Zakaria and Abdel Karim are politicians, although Zakaria holds the rank of colonel.

 

But they are little present and have no ground in the army, and Teman Erdimi is a leader

 

The UFR opposition organization was at the head of one of the factions in the year 2008 AD when besieging

 

The presidential palace, a political, not a military, time, and he could not gather their ranks while he was on

 

The head of the UFR was given a historic opportunity.

 

So the Zaghawa realize the importance of Deby, and his multiple external and internal relationships

 

His long experience in politics and his role in major regional and international issues strengthened

 

His permanent presence, in addition to being a military man, has a good reputation within the institution

 

military.

 

The armed opposition has entered forcefully and is advancing towards the capital, realizing that its loss

 

It means suicide, that’s why it entered all its arsenals and its regions, and the size of it is determined

 

The costs and armaments are three million dollars, and therefore we should not underestimate the capabilities of

 

The opposition has brought down a number of generals in the high command and those close to it

 

From the president, but their media reputation was weak due to the death of Debbie himself, who

 

Represents the president and commander in chief of the army, as if history is repeating itself, Debbie himself

 

When he entered Chadian territory from the Chadian-Sudanese border, he was

 

His entry is like committing suicide in the face of Habri, with no backing up or turning back.

 

The Transitional Military Council and the French Position

 

After the death of the president was announced, the army spokesman said in an official statement that “it was done

 

Formation of a military council led by General Mohamed Idriss Deby Itno (also known as

 

General Mohamed Kaka)”, and that the Transitional Military Council will run the affairs of the country

 

For 18 months, “its unity and stability are guaranteed”, Parliament and the government were dissolved,

 

He will work on forming a government and transitional institutions that will oversee the organization of elections.

 

Curfew measures have been announced throughout the country between 6 pm and 5 pm

 

in the morning, and the closure of all transit ports in the country: land and sea.

 

France stressed its support for the military council and the need for a “peaceful transition.”

 

authority in Chad, and through dialogue with all political parties and society

 

civil society, relying on civil institutions, and ensuring the territorial integrity of Chad

 

This is what all Chadians realize that France has a great role to play on territorial integrity

 

The country is free of divisions and will support this through the military presence in Chad.

 

It is worth noting that the late President Idriss Deby is one of France’s most important allies in the world

 

The region, and that Deby’s relationship became stronger after Macron’s arrival, unlike his relationship with

 

Francois Hollande, who was at odds with Debbie on some points, such as the murder case

 

The politician Ibn Omar, and Chadian-French relations are among the files

 

Military security.

 

The council was made up of the generals’ membership:

 

1- General Mohamed Idris Itno as President.

 

2- General Gama de Ma Joz – Minister of Defense, Deputy.

 

3- General Beshara Issa Jadallah as second deputy.

 

4- General in Oki Dakkas, a member

 

5- General Muhammad Emael Shaibo – Member

 

6- General Suleiman Abkar, member

 

7- General Taher wanted him as a member.

 

8- General Azim Bernardo as a member

 

9- General Amin Ahmed Idris, member

 

10- General Juman Mukhtar as a member

 

11- General Saleh Haqi, member

 

22- General Abkar Abdul Karim, Commander-in-Chief, Member

 

31- General Ahmed Youssef Mohamed Hatno, member.

 

14- General Qila Hemisi, member

 

The notes therein are as follows:

 

1_ This council came like a tribal-clan alliance between components of the Zaghawa

 

The Mahri Arabs are like Chotiar Bishara Jad Allah, and the Tama clans are like Chotiar

 

Mohamed Nour Abdel Karim.

 

2_ Dissolving Parliament, canceling the constitution, and forming a military council led by Mohamed Idriss Deby

 

It may open the door to divisions and conflicts that may be a cause for differences in the institution

 

military and opens the way for the generals who think they are deserving of the position.

 

3_ The position of the army at this stage was to confirm the maintenance of security and readiness for any

 

aggression, and in accordance with the 2006 constitution, the Speaker of Parliament is assigned to run the country, and here it will be

 

The position of the opposition is weak, and it has no choice but to compromise and reconciliation.

 

4_ The killing of Deby encouraged the armed opposition to advance towards N’Djamena and returned to it

 

Enthusiasm to seize power, it was defeated, but it was victorious by killing the supreme leader

 

The army, which represents all power.

 

5_ The experience of choosing the president’s son in a country like Chad is an adventure and it is new to me

 

Chadian society that occurred between it and such traditions break after the scourge

 

From the rule of the old sultans, the street is frustrated with the idea of ​​any succession to power, especially since

 

Debbie’s authority was not stable.

 

6_ I have spoken in detail in my book: External Interventions of the Chadian Army (

 

Effects and claims) on the nature of the components of the Chadian army.

 

And the nature of the military institution was not prepared for such a reality, especially since it is composed of

 

Tribal and close to the nature of the militia, and its national foundations and controls are not fixed

 

It has more than a hundred generals, among whom are illiterate, and some of them were appointed for reasons of settlement

 

and ethnic balances.

 

7_ There are many pockets of other oppositions that you may be able to collect under the

 

(FACT) such as groups of valleys, Arabs, pumpkins, dajos … etc.

8_ This void left by Deby will be great in a country where institutions are absent

 

And its borders are large, overlooking all fragile states that suffer crises, including lawlessness

 

Security and terrorist groups.

 

9- The Chadian Trade Union Confederation issued a statement rejecting the military council and called it:

 

We reject the Transitional Military Council’s seizure of power and called for the handover of power

 

for civilians. And condemned the receipt of power by force of arms.

 

Circumstances and facts stand so far on the side of General Muhammad Kaka and outweigh him

 

France confirms its support, and a high-ranking delegation headed by French President Macron attended the meeting

 

The funeral ceremony of President Déby to his final resting place, in the presence of heads of state, the President

 

The Nigerian Mohamed Bazoum, the Mauritanian Mohamed Ould Al-Ghazwani and the President of the Council

 

The Sudanese Sovereign Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, the Guinean Alpha Conde, and the Chairman of the Council

 

Mali Ndaou Ba, Gabonese Prime Minister Ross Osuka, and the National Assemblyجمعية

 

(The Chadian Parliament) supports the formation of the Military Council on April 21, 2021 AD.

 

And the President of the Federation, Moussa Al-Faki, crossed a post on his page in which he supported the Council in particular

 

And that it is an integral part of the Chadian regime, but the position of the African Union was clear

 

Forming a committee to investigate the killing of President Deby, and granting the legitimate authority to civilians.

 

The Chadian people are worried at the present time for fear of a repeat of the 1979 war.

 

The data favor the young man, Muhammad Kaka, and the scenarios are similar to the case of Sudan in

 

Its beginnings and ends with a similar face (for Sudan: a transitional military council), and it is suspicious

 

For the State of Togo, upon the departure of the President of Togo, Gnassingbe Eyadema in the year 2005 AD after

 

A rule that lasted 38 years, the power was handed over to his son, Forgnasingbe, but the situation

 

In Chad, the Chadian military establishment differs in its nature and composition from

 

Military institutions in African countries.

 

We derive the following from all of this:

 

1- The state of Chad remains in a crisis, which calls for a serious stand by the people (the expression is peaceful)

 

protests, he has honorable positions) even though the people themselves suffer from conflicts

 

ethnicity.

 

2- The peaceful transfer of power is a real way out for the upcoming Chad crisis in the presence of all

 

These problems.

 

3- The unity of the opposition at home and abroad is necessary to confront the problems in the country

 

So as not to show slips.

 

4- The Military Council must seriously address the crisis and seek to solve it, and it has to reach a conclusion

 

Resolve Balmhavhat and dialogue, and call for reconciliation.

 

5- The Chadian army that has turned into a policeman in the region, it is clear to us that it is dragging

 

The country is in crisis, and that these moves must be in coordination with the parties

 

And organizations, the armies were founded to defend the homelands, and the support of France does not mean

 

Necessarily the continuation of its position or that it is able to resolve the conflict, as circumstances have passed

 

It proved the opposite of what France wanted.

 

6- The military council’s attempt to turn the issue into a tribal conflict between (Qur’an)

 

Kanem) and the government will negatively affect the situation, as the FACT organization is made up of several

 

Tribes such as: Al-Balalah, Al-Wadi, Al-Tama, Al-Arab, etc.

 

That is why we look forward to the intervention of the African Union impartially to spare the bloodshed, and the neighboring countries,

 

Qatar and Saudi Arabia previously sponsored reconciliation between the opposition and the regime.

 

President Déby was a link between politicians and the military, and with his passing, he left

 

A vacuum that needs a leader to fill this void, as he did not leave a state of institutions, and this is

 

It would affect the stability of the region.

 

 

Dr.. Adam Youssef: researcher and academic, working on the culture and language project in

Africa – a culture of violence and peace with a focus on tracking Central African issues, Center for African Research and Studies – Sudan.